I’ve been investing in startups for about eight years now, with mixed success. I’m not a professional investor or a venture capitalist; I’m just a CTO with a couple of exits and a few other failures in my background. I’ve seen (part of) the world, and I aim to scale up by supporting entrepreneurs. As such, some of my investments exited nicely, some others failed and had to be written off, and the majority fell somewhere in between – mediocre exits that provided returns ranging from 0.8x to 1.2x. None of these investments made me or the founders billionaires, but we had a lot of fun along the way.
For a long time, my investment thesis was somewhat fuzzy. I had a clear focus on B2B SaaS with a strong tech footprint (my forte, after all). However, in the end, I always invested in the founding team and whether I fell in love with their idea. This led me to invest in FoodTech, TravelTech, or even pure non-digital companies. Why limit ourselves? But in most cases, these companies had a horizon-1 thesis – they aimed to solve or improve problems using today’s technology, primarily for efficiency gains.
But that’s about to change.
Investing in the present is great; you can forecast it, analyze it financially, and perform technical due diligence easily. Investing in the future is much more difficult because you have to dream first and then evaluate whether the team in front of you can actually follow that collective dream.
Once you start picturing the future and how things will evolve, you can imagine business models, challenges to solve, and efficiencies to gain. It’s not just about the key technology itself but also all its complements – delivery and distribution, marketplaces, ecosystems, scalability, and more.
Now, imagine the world we’ll live in 20 years from now. I like to start at that scale to ensure there’s enough time to realize the fundamental societal changes that technology will bring. AI is a commodity, and every person has an army of agents at their disposal to handle menial tasks in our daily lives.
Our agents are like executive assistants on steroids. They know everything about us, our preferences, schedules, personal and professional agendas, and how we like to consume content to make decisions. They even understand their limits and when human intervention is necessary. AI agents have a presence both in the physical and digital worlds (which are blurred with augmented reality). This means you have a support bot with these agents embedded, capable of running errands for you.
You could be in a meeting at a café wearing glasses or a headset. You’re physically at a table, but you also see three colleagues sitting next to you – even though they’re not physically there. They appear almost corporeal, with photorealistic avatars of themselves. This immersive experience blurs the lines between the physical and virtual worlds.
When you finish your meeting, you hail a mini auto-cab, almost like a motorbike with just one wheel and a powerful gyroscope. There’s no human driver; autonomous vehicles have made human drivers obsolete within the city limits. You could have chosen a larger cab or even a self-driving bus, but you prefer the speed and flexibility of a one-wheel bike.
As you drive, you see the reflection of the transparent glass walls of skyscrapers. You can almost see people working inside, but you know they’re super powerful translucent solar panels capturing enough energy to power most of the building. In one of the offices, you see how several of the walls become opaque, likely for a presentation. These glasses serve as both solar panels and massive TVs or even fully immersive VR experiences where teams connect on the Metaverse with employees from other branches. Avatars are lifelike and can be fully immersed or merged with the physical world.
You’re almost home, passing by the remnants of an old coal power plant. It’s funny how this used to be a noisy, polluted area, far from where anyone would want to live. Heavy industry and the power plant made it an undesirable neighborhood. Luckily, the plant closed down a while ago, and new alloys have made old manufacturing methods obsolete. Almost everything is 3D printed now, from the bike you’re riding to cutting-edge medical devices. Quantum computers helped material scientists discover super-resistant, flexible, and affordable materials. Some of these materials are even used for the space elevator, set to be finished in another decade or so!
And as for the power plant, the combination of renewable energy sources and the productization of fusion energy changed everything. We now have clean and affordable energy for everyone, saving the planet in the process. Electric cars no longer need expensive wall sockets; you can park them anywhere, and they recharge instantly. Even your phone and the café table recharge all your batteries automatically. It’s like Nikola Tesla’s dream come true.
It’s truly a brave new world. You call your partner from your “link,” the evolution of what we used to call a “smartphone.” It’s essentially a holographic screen that you can project anywhere – from your wrist to your hand or a table. In your case, you wear it as a necklace, but others prefer wristbands or more adventurous options like contact lenses or subcutaneous chips. Nanofabrication has advanced significantly, so the “link” houses a quantum chip, advanced tensor processing units, CPUs, and more. The Quantum chip generates pure random numbers, ensuring secure communication. If needed, noise-canceling inner earphones isolate you from the world, and a mask can suppress your words to protect your privacy. Neural links are advancing too, converting brain signals into emulated voices. The signal has no latency, thanks to superconductors at room temperature and smart routing algorithms, enabling lightning-speed communications, even with people on the other side of the planet.
However, things get complicated when communicating with other planets, as there’s still a delay due to the speed of light. Colonies on the Moon and Mars have been growing, and you have a friend on Mars! We don’t have real-time communication with them yet, but it only takes 4 to 5 months to get there now (used to be 7 months), and scientists are optimistic about new propulsion engines. Relay stations synchronize Earth’s “Link” with Mars’, allowing you to leave notes in the Metaverse for your friend on another planet. Thankfully, these colonies are self-sufficient, and they no longer depend on Earth for goods, especially with Earth’s gravity.
As you stroll through your new neighborhood, once an industrial area, you spot a couple of cop-bots patrolling. Human cops still handle more challenging tasks, but these unarmed bots are well-equipped to manage minor crimes. They’re fast, highly connected, and can neutralize attackers without causing harm. Since their deployment, police casualties have decreased dramatically, crime is nearly nonexistent, and civil unrest situations have far less collateral damage. Now you live in a safe and thriving neighborhood with plenty of green spaces and walking areas.
This neighborhood’s transformation is a testament to progress. Almost no one owns a car anymore, as public transport is cheap and efficient, and self-driving cabs are abundant. With more people working from home or in the Metaverse, private cars have become rare. This shift allowed highways and parking lots to transform into playgrounds and social areas, making the streets more vibrant than ever!
This area used to have a significant homeless population, a reflection of the tough times 20 years ago. Unemployment was high, countries faced recurring recessions, inflation was rampant, and only the wealthy could afford to buy. Many people became homeless or turned to crime. Being on the streets after 8 pm was dangerous.
Thanks to remarkable advancements in food technology, from artificial meat and proteins to incredible improvements in crop yields, food became abundant. Full automation of agriculture eliminated scarcity, and city gardens now grow various fruits and vegetables, feeding the neighborhood. Automation also reduced the cost of basic goods, making it easier for social homes to support people. Those without jobs received a basic income while they figured out their next steps. With education freely available via the link, people could pursue their dreams, and equality improved. A single mother taking care of three kids could automate most household tasks, get an education, and improve her job prospects while her kids attended well-funded public schools.
Finally, you arrive home, pour yourself some wine produced the “old way” (not like those cheap imitations). Chemistry remains constant, after all. You transform your living room into a Tron bike game; you have a match today, and you’re determined to win.
This isn’t science fiction; it’s science. The gap between Neal Stephenson’s “Snowcrash” or Stanley Kubrick’s “2001: A Space Odyssey” and today is much smaller than what we might experience by 2044. While we don’t yet have room-temperature superconductors, our Metaverse needs work, and AI isn’t yet AGI, these advancements are happening as we speak. It’s a time of true exponential revolution.
So, when investing in a company that will succeed (or not) in the next 8 to 15 years, I want to envision that journey and where that company fits in. They don’t have to be the next SpaceX, OpenAI, or Meta. They just have to fit within that environment.
And that’s why I no longer invest in traditional B2B SaaS companies.
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